Election prediction markets hit $1.4 billion in trading as forecasting credibility faces test

Prediction markets linked to the 2026 US midterm elections have exceeded $1.4 billion in trading volume , according to a CNN analysis , as the industry faces a test of its forecasting accuracy amid continued skepticism about traditional opinion polls. The November elections could influence whether prediction markets become an established source of political forecasting , particularly as both market probabilities and opinion polls indicate potential Democratic gains in Congress. The industry's credibility could suffer if those expectations prove inaccurate.