Brazil Election Results Spark Debate Over Prediction Markets After Lula Wins at 20% Odds

Polymarket and Kalshi priced Flávio Bolsonaro as a roughly 80% favorite hours before Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday’s runoff, and traders are split on whether the markets got it wrong. Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi had Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 80% on Sunday morning. By evening, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had won a fourth term, and traders were arguing about what the markets were for. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court counted 51.8% of valid votes for Lula against 48.2% for Bolsonaro, CNBC reported .