Lula Wins Brazil Election After Polymarket Put His Odds Near 20%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election after Polymarket put his chance of victory at about 20% before voting, highlighting the gap between market odds and an election outcome. Before ballots were cast, the market gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% chance of winning. Lula’s victory secured his fourth presidential term. FhantomBets, a large Polymarket trader, argued that retail traders’ bearish positioning on Lula lifted Bolsonaro’s implied odds. The trader said professional traders put Lula’s election-day chances at 30% to 40%.