US Treasury Bitcoin Buy Odds Hit 21% on Kalshi but Few Are Betting

A Kalshi contract betting that the U.S. Treasury will buy bitcoin before 2028 touched 21%, but only a sliver of money is backing that number. Odds on Kalshi had risen past 20% that the U.S. Treasury will buy bitcoin next year. The fine print, however, was narrower and it bears mentioning that the market resolves only on a Treasury announcement of a completed bitcoin purchase for a government-held reserve. Speeches, studies and executive orders do not count. The 21% figure belongs to the contract that runs until Jan. 1, 2028.