Prediction Markets Put Lutnick’s Exit Odds at 47% by Jan. 1, 2027

Prediction-market contracts on Nov. 13 put the chance that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would leave his post by Jan. 1, 2027, at 47%, as Congress scrutinizes the administration’s China chip-export policy. A separate contract put the odds of Lutnick leaving by Nov. 30 at 40.5%. The two figures reflect different departure deadlines. The scrutiny centers on the administration’s handling of advanced-chip exports to China and its decision not to add certain Chinese firms to the Entity List, the Commerce Department’s trade blacklist. Lawmakers from both parties have raised questions about U.S. trade and technology policy. Sens.