Polymarket Puts Odds of Nvidia Ending 2026 Below $4 Trillion at 48%

A Polymarket contract put the odds of Nvidia ending 2026 with a market capitalization below $4 trillion at 48% Thursday, leaving the prediction just under even odds on the threshold. As of 7:43 a.m. ET (12:43 UTC) Thursday, Nov. 12, the probability was 48%, up 18% over the previous 24 hours. The $4 trillion figure is the cutoff for the contract’s lower market-cap outcome. Settlement is based on Nvidia’s official closing share price during regular trading on the final trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company’s outstanding shares at that time.