Polymarket Midterms: How the Odds Called the Senate, and the One Upset They Missed

Polymarket called the 2026 midterms mostly right, and it got there hours before the networks. An hour before the first polls closed, the market gave Democrats a 73.5 percent chance of winning both chambers. NBC News called the House at 04:08 CET and the Senate at 05:26 CET on Wednesday. In the nine Senate races with a Polymarket market that had been called by 05:30 CET, the favourite won eight. The big miss was South Carolina, where Annie Andrews stood at just 30.5 percent.