Election Day Prediction Market Guide: Democrats Favored, but Senate Races Remain Unsettled

The 2026 Midterm Elections have arrived, and prediction market traders are backing a Democratic takeover of Congress. Kalshi gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of winning the House , as of 8 a.m. ET Tuesday. Its Senate dashboard points toward 53 Democratic seats . Those are expectations, not results. As DeFi Rate explained in our guide to what election probabilities actually measure , a 70% favorite is not expected to win 70% of the vote, and can still lose. Market prices are neither official election calls nor a substitute for counting ballots.