Warning: A 70% Election Favorite Can Still Lose, Prediction Markets Aren’t Calling the Midterms

A candidate trading at 70% is not expected to win 70% of the vote. A candidate trading at 90% has not won. And a late swing in prediction market prices is not evidence that ballots have changed. Those distinctions can disappear when election odds travel across social media as red-and-blue maps, screenshots and declarations that one party is headed for a sweep. With five days until the midterms, Kalshi and Polymarket are offering a constantly updating assessment of what their traders expect. That can be useful information.