Polymarket Puts 3% Odds on Bitcoin Reaching $130,000 in 2026

Polymarket pricing put a 3% chance on Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $130,000 or higher by the end of 2026, while a separate Deribit options estimate put the odds of touching $100,000 at 20% to 25%. The figures cover different price targets and are not directly comparable. The Polymarket reading was dated Oct. 22. Its contract tracks the $130,000 threshold; it does not measure the odds of Bitcoin setting any new record. The Deribit estimate concerns a $100,000 touch by year-end. Kalshi’s Sept.