Lula Won Brazil at 20 Cents While Final Polls Had Him a Point Behind

Lula won Brazil’s presidential runoff on October 25 with 51.79 percent of valid votes to 48.21 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, a margin of 4,430,191 votes, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announced. At noon ET on election day, Polymarket priced a Lula win at 20.5 cents and Kalshi priced it at 20.2 percent. The final registered polls had Bolsonaro narrowly ahead. Polymarket chief executive Shayne Coplan said the platforms’ 2024 US election call gave prediction markets “a level of credibility”. In Brazil, the contract that paid out was the one traders had priced as the outsider.