Iran Blockade Polymarket Odds: Trump Calms Oil, Not Traders

Iran blockade Polymarket odds put the chance of the United States announcing an end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 15 at 9.5%, up from 8.5% a day earlier. That is low even after President Donald Trump said Washington will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. The contract resolves only on an official U.S. announcement that clearly ends or suspends the blockade. Talks, a pause in strikes, or looser enforcement do not count.