Fed Rate Polymarket Odds Point to an October Hold

Bitcoin may get a short break from rate pressure this month. Fed rate Polymarket odds now give an 81% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting, up 32 points, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike have dropped 28 points to 20%. The catch is December: traders still see a 76% chance of a hike at the December 8–9 meeting, which keeps the risk of higher yields, tighter liquidity, and renewed volatility firmly on the table. --> That makes October less of a pause and more of a timing shift.