Bitcoin Price Odds on Prediction Markets Give $100K Just 27%

Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 is looking increasingly doubtful before 2027, at least in the eyes of prediction market traders. Polymarket assigns just a 27% probability to the milestone this year, while Kalshi’s October forecast sits at $87,000. With bitcoin trading near $83,416 on Tuesday, Oct. 13, traders are pricing in a far greater chance of another retreat toward $80,000 than a spectacular six-figure comeback this month. Bitcoin’s six-figure price ambitions are getting a cold reception from prediction markets, where traders are putting real money behind decidedly modest expectations. On Oct.