Fed decision make-or-break for Bitcoin’s Q4, Nexo data suggests

Bitcoin ( BTC ) ended the third quarter up 42.7%, from $58,544 to $83,570, snapping three consecutive down quarters. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision is now the central swing factor for what comes next, according to Nexo’s “Digital Assets in Q4: Market Outlook” report published on October 21, 2026. The catalyst behind Q3’s recovery was not a crypto-native development but a macro one. On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would double its purchases of long-dated bonds , compressing yields and sending risk assets higher.