Kalshi traders price 44% chance of US government shutdown on December 12

Prediction market odds have swung with every twist in Congress as lawmakers face a lame-duck funding deadline Traders on Kalshi are pricing a 44.2% chance that the US federal government will be shut down on December 12, 2026. The contract hinges on a single moment. It resolves “Yes” only if a partial shutdown is in effect at 10:00 a.m. ET on December 12, 2026. A shutdown also has to be official to count. The contract requires verification through directives from the Office of Management and Budget or the Office of Personnel Management at the time of closure.