Election Market Review Finds Kalshi Favorites Won 96.4% of Scored Races

Prediction market traders got most election winners right, but a closer look at the underlying contracts shows why that conclusion needs more detail than a single accuracy figure. A DeFi Rate analysis of an election-market spreadsheet found that Kalshi ’s pre-election favorites won 489 of 507 scored events, a 96.4% hit rate . Polymarket US favorites won 408 of 417 scored events, or 97.8% . The comparison uses prices observed at or before midnight Eastern entering Tuesday and reported election outcomes through Thursday evening. Those figures support the broad conclusion that traders correctly anticipated most winners.