Wisconsin Governor Poll Shows a Toss-Up, Kalshi Gives Crowley a 79% Probability

The Wisconsin governor’s race looks like a coin flip in the latest poll, but prediction markets see something much closer to a Democratic hold. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley leads Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany 46% to 45% in a Marquette University Law School survey, with 9% undecided. The one-point gap falls comfortably within the poll ’s 4.3-point margin of error. Yet Crowley is trading at 79% on Kalshi , where $1.4 million has changed hands, and 81% on Polymarket , with just over $700,000 in volume. That is a substantial disagreement heading into the 2026 midterm elections .