Talarico Climbs to 66% on Kalshi as Texas Senate Trading Hits $35M

Texas continues to look less and less like a Democratic long shot on prediction markets, and a lot more money is trading on the outcome. James Talarico is now at 66% to win the Senate race on Kalshi , with $35 million in trading volume. That gives the Democratic state representative roughly a two-in-three chance of defeating Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton . The price is higher than the roughly 62%-63% probabilities reported across Kalshi and Polymarket last week.