Polymarket reforms Bitcoin contracts and Binance trading spikes immediately drop

Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin contract sampled on Oct. 27 uses averaged opening and closing benchmarks, following an August reform that changed the incentive to move its settlement price. The current design requires a different risk assessment from the single-snapshot rule examined in earlier research. An estimate of about $8.2 million earned by 821 wallets in earlier pushed cycles belongs to that historical research. Guangzhe Wang’s newer study cites the finding from Dai and co-authors. Wang’s before-and-after results instead point to a subsiding Binance trading pattern in the first weeks after averaging.