11 Prediction Market Mistakes That Cost New Traders Money

Prediction markets look simple. Pick Yes or No, pay a price in cents, and collect $1 per share if you call it right. New traders still lose money in predictable ways, and many of those losses stem from something other than a wrong forecast. They come from rules left unread, costs left uncounted and positions sized for hope over arithmetic. Below: eleven prediction market mistakes, grouped from the first click to the final payout, followed by a one-table checklist to run before every trade. Yes shares at 80 cents signal a crowd estimate of roughly 80%.