“Uptober to Hacktober”: Is Bitcoin’s seasonal cycle losing edge?

Bitcoin ’s long-running “Uptober” reputation is facing a stress test after a second straight month of losses in October. Instead of the traditional seasonal lift, analysts are now weighing whether recent institutional flows and macro conditions are overwhelming the calendar, or whether the drawdown is simply a temporary interruption. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026, following a roughly 4% decline in the same month a year earlier. The underwhelming performance has also fueled darker “October” labels in crypto circles, amid a broader backdrop of security incidents, including Binance ’s reported $6.3 billion hack.