Predicting the Next Crypto Bear Market Start

The best answer isn’t one specific date, but rather a range of risk periods: the risk of the next bear market is already heightened, with late 2026 serving as an important time to confirm. Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place on April 20, 2024, and previous cycles often became most fragile after the post-halving rally matured; as of October 13, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $83,516 , so investors are no longer analyzing an early-cycle market. ( bitcoin.org ) A useful forecast should combine market cycle analysis, trend structure, on-chain profitability, ETF flows, macro policy, and investor behavior.