Is Crypto in a Bear Market in 2026? 7 Indicators to Watch

Short answer: crypto is already in a bear market under the simple “20% below the high” definition, but the broader evidence does not yet show full, market-wide capitulation. As of October 13, 2026, Bitcoin is about 34.1% below its October 2025 record , U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost roughly $451.7 million in October through October 12, and monetary policy remains restrictive. At the same time, Bitcoin’s MVRV is 1.54 , price remains about 11.7% above the short-term-holder cost basis , and total stablecoin supply is still up over 30 days.