Fed Meeting Today: Traders Price a 95% Hold and a 79% December Hike. What Does It Mean for Crypto?

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% when its two-day Fed meeting ends on Wednesday, October 28, as officials weigh 3.7% inflation against a weakening job market six days before the U.S. midterms. Polymarket traders give a hold 94.9% odds ahead of the 2 p.m. ET statement. The decision itself is mostly priced in. December isn’t: the same markets see a 79% chance of another hike then, so crypto traders will be watching Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. more than the statement.