Bitcoin Model Shows Reclaiming $126,198 Does Not Ensure a Year-End Close

A one-year Bitcoin (BTC) simulation found that closing above $126,198.07 at least once was more common than ending the year above the same level. The results separate a temporary move past the threshold from the price at the end of the modeled period. Of 100,000 simulated paths, 50.4% recorded at least one daily close above the threshold within 365 days. By the end of the year, 34.8% were above it. The difference is 15.6 percentage points, representing paths that crossed the level but finished below it.