Bitcoin Lost Ground in Three of Four Midterm-Year Q4s Since 2010

Bitcoin (BTC) had negative fourth-quarter returns in three of four U.S. midterm election years since 2010, a short record that contrasts with gains over the year after the last three midterm votes. BTC rose 391% in Q4 2010. It then fell 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022, leaving 2010 as the only positive year in the four-period comparison. The figures describe a pattern, not its cause. Four observations do not show that elections drove Bitcoin’s moves; market cycles and liquidity also shaped those periods.