Bitcoin ETF Flows Correlate More With Past Than Future Returns

U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund flows were more closely correlated with returns over the prior five trading sessions than with returns over the next five, with little measured relationship to forward performance. The study window ran from Jan. 11, 2024, to Oct. 16, 2026, spanning 694 trading days. Flow correlation was 0.54 against Bitcoin returns over the preceding five sessions, 0.41 on the same day, 0.09 for the next day and 0.03 over the following five sessions. The lead-lag comparison used the 4 p.m. ET close (20:00 UTC during daylight time and 21:00 UTC during standard time).