Bitcoin Analysis Points to Strong Rally as Dormant “Old Coins” Stay Inactive

Bitcoin ’s onchain data is starting to align with the early phases of another potential bull run, according to analysis from CryptoQuant and research from Galaxy Digital. The key signal: long-term holders—especially coins that haven’t moved for at least 18 months—are showing less onchain activity, a shift that historically has preceded sustained upside. CryptoQuant reports that the share of Bitcoin ’s realized cap tied to UTXOs dormant for 18 months or longer has eased since mid-September. After peaking at 26.98% on Sept. 16—the highest level since mid-November 2024—the figure declined to 26.59% as this older cohort gradually reduced spending activity.